If there's one thing on this guy's list that I agree with, it's his seventh prediction. Apple is dominating the tablet market, and they're going to keep dominating it as long as their competitors have little ambition or ability to overtake them. Apple is already leaps and bounds ahead of other software/hardware companies in terms of tablet technology, and this is because they didn't launch a product that would be considered copyable. They held off with the release, slowly but surely building a machine that was so remarkable that no other company could just rip it off or repackage it as their own in a few months. And, clever little devils that they are, they did it partly by creating other, more minor marvels like the iPhone. While all the other companies were sitting around trying to copy their lesser creations, they created a full-blown nonpareil.
Another good prediction that this particular writer has made is that television is dying out because of the internet. It's already happening, and for one reason: computers are starting to eclipse the usefulness of television. Our family doesn't even own a TV, and one of the biggest reasons why is that anything you want to watch, you can watch on the internet. With the advent of streaming TV and the gargantuan following that file sharing already has, TVs are swiftly becoming obsolete. I've watched every single episode of Frasier, and I've never seen a single one on TV.
If there's one thing that's very obvious throughout this article, it's that Robin Bloor(the writer) has one incredible man-crush on everything Apple. He seems to worship at the altar of Steve Jobs, and frankly, it's skewing his judgement. Even if he doesn't realize it, his predictions are very biased. First of all, his prediction that Microsoft must run with Kinect or slowly die off is ludicrous. Even before Kinect launched, Microsoft has been boasting insanely high figures, with sales of their products through the roof. Go to almost any home, and look around. Sooner or later, you'll see the PC sitting there. While Macs are enjoying huge popularity, they're not going to annihilate Microsoft anytime soon. Kinect is fantastic, but even before it's release, Xbox 360 sales worldwide were already over 50 million. With Kinect, even in it's basic form, those sales are going to see massive growth as even many casual gamers will be purchasing 360s because of Kinect's possibilities. Microsoft stands strong, and will for a very, very long time.
Let's go back to tablets for a second. I'm going to start this point off strong by saying that the notion of tablet computers overtaking laptops is ludicrous. He's comparing the two as competitors, which they aren't. No one wants to type a document or play a video game or edit a sound file on a tablet, because it would be painfully awkward. I'm not entirely knocking tablet PCs. My father owns an eReader (which basically handles like a tablet PC even though it isn't one, let's not split hairs here) and as easy as it is to carry around and lay on a couch and use, etc. it's the devil to type on. Can you imagine typing a 3000 word essay on a tablet? Trying to play a first person shooter? I know I'm reusing the same arguments that I used a few sentences ago, but trust me, these are the things that young people are worried about today. In case this fact isn't painfully obvious, young people are the future of this planet, and what's important to them is going to be important to the future. The laptop is made for function, but the tablet lacks utility in too many areas to make it a laptop killer. Robin Bloor says himself that he made "the most outrageous estimate of iPad sales" last year. Well, he's still doing that in 2011.
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